Thursday, January 20, 2011

Partial vs General equilibrium labor supply models

In the standard labor supply model, the individual's choice between income and leisure is mediated by the wage level. But in the analysis of labor demand, the presence of quasi-fixed, per-worker costs constrain the substitution of hours for workers. To an ignorant non-economist, the presence of these quasi-fixed costs raises questions about what economists mean when they refer to 'the wage' with regard to their labor supply model.

I'm sure my confusion could be easily cleared up with a few letters of the Greek alphabet, an indifference curve or two and a smattering of strategically-placed assumptions. But I want to try to do it the hard way, with examples drawn from real data that have a semblance of familiarity to the unlearned, such as myself.


According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median hourly wage in the USA for all civilian workers in 2009 was $17.90 and the median weekly wage was $708. Imputing the median weekly hours from those two numbers gives us 39.6 hours. An earlier (2003) survey of total compensation costs reported wages and salaries as approximately 72% of total compensation costs. Benefit costs made up the rest. But a large portion of benefit costs are tied directly to hours worked. For the sake of convenience, we will assume that quasi-fixed, per employee costs comprise 10% of total compensation costs. On top of that, we will add a fixed 5% administrative cost to the compensation total, so that labor costs can be regarded as 105% of compensation.

The weekly cost to the employer for this median worker is calculated to be $1032.50, of which $147.50 are quasi-fixed costs. Now, if the worker 'chooses' to work 5% less or two fewer hours a week, this $147.50 fixed cost will act as a wedge of around 18 cents an hour between the given wage rate and the employer's cost. Either the employer would have to swallow this small differential or the employee would have to take a small wage cut in addition to a cut in weekly income proportionate to the reduction in hours.

Now it is arguable that our median worker will be just as productive in 37.6 hours as he or she previously was in 39.6 hours, so a loss of $42 in weekly income may seem unfair to the worker. In fact, considering long-term trends, the reduction from 39.6 hours to 37.6 hours might even make the worker more productive, not just on an hourly basis but in total. In 1958, BLS economist Joseph Zeisel called the long-term decline in the industrial workweek "one of the most persistent and significant trends in the American economy in the past century." That was, it had been persistent and significant up until around 1940.

A lot changed after the Second World War. One of the changes was the growing importance of per-employee benefits, which economists started to take serious note of in the 1960s. Another change was the institutionalization of government economic stabilization policy. Unions in the U.S. gradually ceased advocating shorter working time as a remedy for unemployment and started urging government spending instead. As political pressure for work time reduction receded, economic incentives for longer hours accumulated.

From 1850 to 1946, the industrial workweek declined from 66 hours a week to 40, a decline at the rate of about a half a percentage point a year. From August 1945 to March 2010, however, the average manufacturing workweek increased by six minutes. Let's imagine that the earlier trend reflected a sustained decline in the number of hours per week optimal for output. And let's assume that the same trend could have continued. Under such an assumption, the optimal full-time workweek today would be around 32 hours or about 18.5% shorter than it is. If that was the case, not only could we be producing as much in the shorter hours as we currently are in 40 but we could potentially produce more.

The theoretical basis for the above speculation has a remarkably prestigious pedigree: William Stanley Jevons, Alfred Marshall, Sydney J. Chapman, A.C. Pigou, Lionel Robbins, J.R. Hicks... Whereas the origins of the "labor-less labor supply model" are... ummm... somewhat murky.

(See also Lars Osberg's observations on a level playing field in hours from the Report of the Advisory Committee on the Changing Workplace, 1997.)

deja vu

5 comments:

  1. Very interesting, and indeed leaves food for thought.

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  2. "To an ignorant non-economist, the presence of these quasi-fixed costs raises questions about what economists mean when they refer to 'the wage' with regard to their labor supply model."

    What economists mean (or, rather, what they *should* mean) is "*marginal* payment per hour worked", as opposed to "*average* payment per hour worked. It's the extra dollars per extra hour, which is not (always) the same as total dollars per total hours.

    And these fixed costs would be consistent with employers requiring workers to work a minimum number of hours (or days, etc,), and paying an overtime rate (the marginal wage) greater than the standard rate (the average wage).

    Moreover, there will also be fixed costs on the supply-side as well. Time spent commuting, for example. If it costs (say) $10 per day to commute, and you could make $10 per hour working at home, your supply-price of labour would be $20 for a one-hour job, $15 for a two-hour job, $13.33 for a three-hour job, etc. Your marginal supply-price is $10 per hour (at least, until you start to get tired and would want to do something else with your extra hour other than work, so the marginal supply price rises).

    That's why plumbers add a call-out fee.

    In competitive equilibrium, the MRS between consumption/hours leisure = the VMP of hours = the *marginal* real wage. Not the average real wage.

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  3. glossary:

    MRS = marginal rate of substitution
    VMP = value of marginal product

    "What economists mean (or, rather, what they *should* mean)..."

    The obvious follow-up question, then, is do they make this subtle but important distinction or do they just go with the common sense idea of the wage as the prevailing hourly rate?

    A second question arises from VMP and a statement made by Lionel Robbins in his 1929 paper on "The economic effects of variations of hours of labour":

    "The days are gone when it was necessary to combat the naïve assumption that the connection between hours and output is one of direct variation, that it is necessarily true that a lengthening of the working day increases output and a curtailment diminishes it."

    Are those days indeed gone? The following question is perhaps rhetorical:

    Does "the wage" as represented in the standard labour supply function take into account this non-direct, variation in the connection between hours and output?

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  4. Back in the early decades of the 20th century, the practice of managerial accounting in manufacturing was to locate and break down "direct labor": that is, you'd find a worker, whose job seemed to tie his efforts directly to unit output. Typically, this worker used specific tools or equipment, which had a measurable unit output. He might be a guy with a shovel, who dug holes; or, more likely, he was a machinist or assembler, whose equipment produced widgets at a measurable and measured pace.

    The wage of the worker was apportioned to the estimate the cost of the units produced. Other costs of the business could be added up and apportioned to the cost of the units produced, as a percentage mark-up to the estimated direct labor cost.

    Managers were not, usually, especially dumb about all of this. They knew the bean counting was somewhat arbitrary, and that marginal cost should be what counted for decision-making. With some simple manipulations, for example, they could figure out, given the fixed benefits paid for direct labor, and fixed overhead costs in running the business, that scheduling regular "overtime" for the "direct labor", even paying time-and-half rates, could represent a lower marginal unit cost. Benefits didn't go up, overhead didn't go up. Managers managed accordingly.

    A funny thing happened to this scheme, though. Over the decades, as production equipment was increasingly automated, there were fewer and fewer folks, who could be identified as "direct labor". In 1920, the accountant was adding 30% or 45% to direct labor to arrive at his estimates of labor input per unit; in 1960, it was more like 85% or 105%. By 1990, the whole scheme had become untenable for a vast range of manufactured products. No one could find the mythical "direct labor" anymore -- there was so little, that cost estimates involved piling integer multiples of overhead costs on top, to allocate burgeoning marketing, administrative and design costs. The method wasn't just crude; it had become fantastical. The identifiable "direct labor" in, say, a $1000 washing machine could be less than a single hour. The assembly hours for a $40,000 automobile might be less than a dozen.

    What are we producing? It isn't the objects of daily life. It isn't food for the table. (Well, a few people are, but it is damn few.) It's "services" and "administration", "sales" and "insurance" and "marketing" that occupy the working hours.

    At the margin, if we, as a society, produced less advertising, would the true net value of usable and useful output go up or down? Most advertising is noxious, at the margin, and a lot of it is defensively rivalrous -- makers of aspirin advertise to keep Tylenol at bay; supermarkets advertise, because the other supermarkets advertise, etc.

    If the typical person "worked" fewer hours, and went home, and used some of that time on "household production" in the form, say, of cooking fresh vegetables, instead of micro-waving frozen ones in a pretty package, would welfare be enhanced or not?

    We really need to re-think the customs that bind the whole society to conventions like the workweek and the hourly wage, and not merely try to revive controversy over the length of the workweek. We especially need to think about the enormous resources that go into producing "information goods" like advertising and financial services, where the marginal output might be wasteful or positively noxious.

    Increasingly, we live in a scam economy, in which the "information goods" produced are advertisements and sales calls for junk and for fraudulent come-ons. And, we strive, when we might be better off, relaxing.

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  5. Thank you, Bruce. I think you're absolutely correct. I see the length of the workweek as a gateway topic that takes us one step away from the economistic fallacy that all will be well with just a bit of fine tuning to the federal deficit or the money supply.

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